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June 25, 2008

speculation

Elephants rejoice: The Mouse Is Dead

Posted Jun. 25, ’08, 6:15 PM PT by Dan Pourhadi
Category | Apple » Speculation

minority-report1.jpgI’m all for gross over-generalized sure-thing blanket-assumptions about the future, especially when it comes to making one myself—no one can really say you’re wrong right now, since it’s a personal theory, and if you are wrong not many are going to remember you said anything anyway (except maybe John Gruber, who gets some kind of sick pleasure from pointing out other’s inaccurate predictions).

So Mike Elgan’s quite unequivocal claim that The Mouse Is Dead is right up my alley—he uses present tense, cementing his confidence in the prediction; and he expresses his theory in terms of broad concepts and technology “phases,” which de-emphasize the specifics of his argument (which are disputable) and focuses instead on his general philosophy of technology interfacing (which isn’t).

He lists these four developments as evidence his theory that we’re in a constant push to get “closer” to our interface is still the driving force behind interface innovation:

  1. Apple’s giant trackpad with multi-touch.
  2. Gaming pointing devices.
  3. “Brain-reading” devices.
  4. Apple iPhone and the “iPhone killers.”

Those are examples of hardware tech that allows for mouse-less interaction, but Elgan’s claim doesn’t click until he brings the argument to software and operating systems—he points out that Microsoft has already said Windows 7 will be optimized for use with their Surface technology, and makes the not-unreasonable assumption that Apple’s next-gen OSs will emphasize the touch tech they’ve been patenting and perfecting for some time.

And it’s all in the software: It’s easy for someone to claim the mouse can’t die, because there are too many things that are much more efficient and much easier when using a mouse. But what they forget to include is the phrase “right now.” Modern interfaces are optimized for mouse control, and that’s why a mouse works best; a future interface optimized for something else will obviously work best with something else. That’s where Elgan’s claim shines—how can we dispute it when any opposing detail can be shot down as temporary and variable?

Well, he has me convinced.


4 Comments

sungoddess Author Profile Page said:

"...things that are much more efficient and must easier when using a mouse.."

should be:

"...efficient and much easier..."

June 25, 2008 8:21 PM
Westwind said:

The mouse is dead? Every try using touch screens across eight monitors, several of which are physically out of reach?

June 25, 2008 8:31 PM
Dan Pourhadi said:

@sungoddess Good catch, thanks.

June 25, 2008 8:35 PM
John said:

All these computer companies are trying to find something new, just for the sake of it. This touch-screen stuff is great for handhelds, for a desktop or notebook, it is silly. I work at a computer all day. Seriously, who wants to be working with your hands constantly touching the screen. For one, it's harder than resting your hands on the desk, with your hands ergonomically resting on the keyboard, and a slight shift sideways to move the mouse. I just hope these snazzy touch screen developments do not bog down and mire the OS with bloatware code.

June 26, 2008 1:09 AM

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