Strike up another one for the iPod Death Knell Counter. In Australia’s The Age, Alan Kohler writes that the iTunes+iPod platform may not be long for this world. Citing increased pressure from mobile phone makers and software competition from the likes of Google and Microsoft, Kohler suggests that iTunes+iPod will go the way of the Mac platform: marginalization.
Well, Mr. Kohler—Alan, if I may? Alan. The minor problem with your argument is that it’s…what’s the word? Right. Specious. John Gruber has rebutted this exact argument in more depth than I can go into here, but, well, the simple fact is that mobile phone makers may want to compete with the iPod, but they haven’t yet shown that they can do it. In fact, if makers of MP3 players are having trouble competing with the iPod, why would phone makers have it any easier? As for Microsoft and Google, it’s easy enough to conjure up the names of these two industry giants as prospective bogeymen, but the numerous Microsoft-based music stores have made nary a dent in Apple’s market share and music downloads don’t quite seem to fit Google’s business model (which is advertising-based).
Lastly, I’d like to acknowledge the patron saint of irony, which allowed me a slight smile at the fact that below Mr. Kohler’s article was a banner ad for his podcast.
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Why would mobile phone makers have it any easier? Well, how about the fact that in the last 5 years apple has sold around 20 or 30 million iPods i believe, while in one year alone over 200 million phones are sold worldwide.
For most people, a mobile phone is simply more important than an mp3 player and will always take precedence in one's budget. A lot of people are going to find their new phones have a couple of gigs of flash memory installed. While many of them will continue to buy iPods due to the superior user experience, if just 10 percent of the 200 million start using their phone for music instead, well that's 20 million users right there.
And as microsoft signs up more and more mobile manufacturers, either to use it's windows mobile or PocketPC OS, or just to support WMA and sync with WM Player (like market leader Nokia has just done!), eventually Apple's going to have to act.
No I don't think it's all doom and gloom. No I don't think iTunes/iPod is going to collapse over night. Yes I think apple is a much smarter company nowadays than it used to be. Yes I think apple will continue to dominate forever so long as it's only competition are 'other mp3 players'. But mobile phones are different. They pose a real threat.
I think you're right, as far as the convergence issue goes. Of course, that hardly precludes the long-awaited vaporware of the iPhone. :)