The iPhone: it’s a phone; it’s an iPod; it’s a web communicator; it’s a spicy barbecue sauce, an inter-dimensional transporter, and a cure for cancer all in one. It’s all things to all people.
Except for Todd Sullivan. To him, the iPhone is merely a flop.
[Apple] has had a string of hits since it introduced the iPod and its shareholders have benefited sending shares from $7 in 2003 to the $100 they sit at today. The introduction of the iPhone will be the first miscue for the company and send its shares, priced for perfection tumbling. “Why?” - you ask.I am so desperate to know why that I simply cannot even stop to ask what “perfection tumbling” is—I simply must know how and why the iPhone will cause my beloved Apple, at an all time high of $109 as of today, to fall apart faster than that book case I bought from Wal-Mart. Why? Tell us why, Todd!
The beauty of the iPod was and is its simplicity and singular purpose. It enabled even the most tech phobic of us to operate and enjoy it. Because of this, sales have been phenomenal. There are several versions of Mp3 player phones out there and none of them are big sellers. The reason? The market does not want them together.That’s right, it’s the classic story of the star-crossed love between phones and MP3 players, immortalized in song, theatre, literature, and film since time immemorial: phone meets MP3 player, the market forbids the phone from dating “chintzy music-playing garbage,” phone and MP3 player sneak off together, and it all ends with a double suicide.
Look, I know I’ve said much the same thing myself vis-a-vis convergence, so on this score, I am in some agreement with Todd. A device designed for one purpose is usually vastly superior in that function to a device that does many things. Take your car for example: if it were a combination car/food processor, you would almost certainly have more issues to worry about. How blades interact with tires, for example.
That said, most phones nowadays have some media-playing capabilities; and if those features aren’t causing them to fly off the shelves, I’m pretty sure that few consumers have halted, hand hanging over that new Motorola RAZR and said: “Sure is shiny….wait, it plays MP3s? Count me out, dawg” (that’s how young people speak these days). So that alone doesn’t seem enough to condemn the entire music-playing phone market. Anyway, continue.
I do not want to have to turn off my music to get a phone call. If I am driving my family in my car and we are listening to the iPod, having to turn off the music to answer my phone becomes a major hassle. The same holds true for any event where I play the iPod. Why would I pay $600 for this, or, buy an iPod in addition to this, in order to avoid the hassle?I for one certainly trust that if Apple is planning on selling a device that combines phone and music-playing functionality, they may have considered the impact of switching back and forth between those two modes. Just a hunch. But I’m going to chalk this one squarely in the “we’ll have to wait and see” category.
All of have [sic] cell phone agreements and have a cancellation fee. This varies from $100 to $150 dollars. This price need to be added to the costs of the iPhone for those who want it right away or it will cause a lag in initial sales. This lag will allow cell competitors to create their own, cheaper versions to compete, hurting future sales.This at times barely comprehensible objection is titled “one carrier” despite the fact that it has little to do with the fact that the iPhone is just on AT&T. I understand that it’s a pain if the iPhone isn’t available on your carrier, but that doesn’t mean you have to buy the iPhone. Just wait until your contract is over. You can’t just add cancellation fees to the cost of the iPhone. As for competitors creating cheaper competitive versions of the iPhone, pardon me as I laugh heartily. Ha ha ha. Good one, Todd.
I don’t know about you, but I learned how to point way before I learned how to scroll. Like when I was two. In fact, I’m not even sure scrolling existed when I was two. Is it different from the BlackBerry? Well, it’s less linear for one thing; that could be an advantage. As for the number of people accidentally calling the wrong person, it’s not as if anybody has ever made a wrong call that with their average cell phone, right?
Being able to make a call simply by pointing a finger at a number is a feature touted for the phone. How is this any different or accurate from scrolling on my blackberry? This feature will lead to frustration, as users who do not point at exactly the number they want will keep initializing errant calls.
How many people have had TV/VCR or DVD combos or the dreaded all in one fax, scanner, copier? Now, how many regret that decision? When you have an all in one, you then become a slave to that device. If either breaks, the both units must be replaced. If a newer, better version or either comes out, you cannot purchase it because it then entails buying both again at considerable cost. Now, when you consider the unimpressive reliability history of the iPod and the cost to attempt to repair them (usually it is cheaper to just buy a new one), it is not an unrealistic stretch to consider that you may be purchasing one of these every two or three years. An expensive proposition.Back to the multi-function argument. Again, I don’t disagree: it is far worse for me to lose my phone than my iPod, and with them in one convenient package, I no longer have to choose which one to misplace! But, at the same time, with TV/VCRs and printer/copier/scanners, we’re talking about multi-function mechanical devices with lots of complex moving pieces. The iPhone is, by and large, a computer; it’s not as if Apple’s shoehorned in (again) blades or, you know, a corkscrew. Phones are computers nowadays too; and I don’t think the components in the iPhone are any more likely to fail than components in other phones—with the exception of the non-replaceable battery. That is an issue and one I’d like to see Apple address. As for purchasing a new iPhone every few years, I know plenty of people who regularly buy both the latest iPod and a spiffy new phone—combining them in one device could very well save them money. Howzabout that?
What Should Apple Do?Let me get this straight. The way that the iPhone will rock is if they crop off most of its capacity? I understand that’d make it somewhat cheaper, but somehow I don’t think those extra 6GB of flash memory are really what’s driving the cost up to the existing price points.
This is the easiest part. There is no reason to have an 8GB iPod on the phone. Give us a 2GB capacity so we can put our favorite stuff on it and listen when we want, cut the price to $299 and you may have something. A $599 phone will not gain mass acceptance no matter what it does, especially when people can still get its functionality from their existing devices. Also, the exclusive deal with AT&T Inc. (T) was not a very bright idea. Until it is expanded to all carriers, you will have nothing more than a little niche product.
I dig that you want a cheaper iPhone, and I don’t disagree with you. I’d like a cheaper iPhone too. And cheaper gas. And a lower rent for my apartment. Come to think of it, I can’t really come up with too much stuff that I want to pay more for in life. Funny, that. As for the exclusive deal with AT&T, we shall see. It’d be nice if the iPhone was available on all carriers, and that might happen at some point. Speaking as a current Verizon customer with nine months left to go in my contract, I’m perfectly content to see how the first six months or so of the iPhone shakes out before jumping ship.
But calling the iPhone a flop before the device is even out yet? Pshaw. Ridiculous. And even if the iPhone is a niche device, that’s by no means mutually exclusive with it being a success. By all accounts, the Mac was and is to this day a niche computer and it’s doing quite well, thanks.
Oh, and a couple of nitpicking points now that we’ve reached the end of my fine-tooth comb analysis: the difference between the $499 and $599 iPhones is not, as you suggest, whether you have a one or two year contract with AT&T, but rather the difference between the 4GB model and the 8GB model. Second, titling your piece “Apple’s First Flop” is a little silly: this is a company that’s been around for over thirty years. Unless the name “Lisa” rings a bell, you’re in over your head, Mr. Sullivan.
Maybe I'm imagining things, but I thought when Steve demoed the iPhone in January, he explained how if the phone was playing music when called it would just pause and then subtly resume after the call?. Anyone? Maybe I just dreamed it up, and if I did then that's still basically what should happen...
Hi. I agree with your analysis. With regards to switching back and forth between phone calls and iTunes, when Steve did his demonstration at MW (I was there...Yeah!), he was listening to music on his iPhone when a phone call came in. The music automatically faded out and the phone rang. He put the phone to his ear and answered the call. When he hanged up, the music came back automatically at the same volume level it was before the call. So I don't see the issue there.
On turning off music to use the phone:
"But I'm going to chalk this one squarely in the “we'll have to wait and see” category."
Why wait? Steve Jobs already demoed iPhone's capability to automatically pause the song when you receive a call and resume it once you hang up. No need to fumble with on/off or play/pause button to fade out the music. Sullivan is talking nonsense. If he bothered to do a research for 10 minutes, he would have understood that. Or not.
philippe, you are correct. i distinctly remember ol' stevie demoing the iPhone while listening to music and receiving a call and when the call came in, the iPhone automatically paused/muted so that you could receive the call, and as soon as you hung up the call, it resumed playing. so FIRST OFF, if you're going to be writing about the iPhone on the internet, probably be a good idea if you actually watched steve jobs' keynote on the stupid thing.
the sullivan fellow is just trying to be another pundit to make some waves by posting some "sky is falling in macland" news and in the end none of it will come through.
i have a canon multifunction printer/scanner/fax/copier. i've owned it for 2+ years and it works perfectly in every way. one of the best printers i've ever had. i also own a couple dvd/vcr's as well and they also work flawlessly. whats the point? the point is that multi-function machines aren't NECESSARILY a bad idea. to me, its all about the quality with which they are made. but dan's assertion about the iPhone being a computer is exactly correct. its basically a very small computer (OSX anyone?) with phone capabilities, and gee wiz, last time i checked apple designs and produces pretty darn good computers.
and what is wrong with a niche product? how much market saturation do you need for it to be considered more than a niche product? i think apple's stated goal (if i remember correctly from jobs' keynote) was 1%. if it gained double that with 2% would it still be considered a niche product??? what an idiot this guy is.... is louderback or dvorak writing under a pen name???
Thanks all, for pointing out that Steve did show off the iPhone's music-to-call transition. I thought I remembered something of the sort, but I wasn't at the keynote this year, so I wasn't sure.
Yea, I don't think this dude saw the keynote. The phone functionality was the coolest part of the, um, phone. That's why my wife wants one. And my boss. And me. They could leave the iPod out and I would get it. Since it does have an ipod with a nice screen, I'll probably watch every episode of Lost every morning on the subway while I wait for the show to start again next February!
And you are right. Apple is just as famous for its flops as its successes. They are cool like that. No mediocrity.
Don't blame Todd. He is just worried about his job and microsoft running computer. Anything real, imagined or borne of ignorance to knock Apple is fine with him.
be at the keynote? most people didn't go to the keynote. just watch the keynote online like most folks: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/
1. The guy is saying that if he were listening to the iPod with his family and his phone rang, he wouldn't turn the volume down? The iPhone (supposedly, anyway) will lower its volume when a call comes in. Try doing the same thing with two separate devices while you're in a car, DRIVING.
2. These "knowledgeable" pundits are just setting Apple up so that when the iPhone sells "just" 1% of the total mobile phone market (which is ALL Apple ever said they wanted for the first two years) they can say, "Hey, look it's only got 1%, not 75% like the iPod, so it must be an iFlop(TM). I was right all along. Now where did I put that dang polka dot bowtie of mine, I got a hot date tonight."
3. The Steve never said the iPhone was going to be the iPod killer, in the same way that the original iPod wasn't an iPod killer, either.
4. When the iPod first came out there were already hundreds of MP3 players around for years. They just weren't any good, usability-wise. When the iPhone comes out next month there would have been loads of MP3 phones around for yonks. They just aren't any good, usability-wise.
5. The iPod made it incredibly simple to find and load songs off your Mac/PC. Amazingly, a lot of MP3 players today still don't get it right.
I think this analyst is just wrong and he is probably just trolling to get headlines.
(For one thing, Apple's first "flop" was the Apple ///.)
In order for the iPhone to be succeessful, they need to meet Apple's sales goal of capturing 1% of smartphone sales by the end of 2008. This is something like 8 million units in about a year and half. Frankly I don't see them not being able to do this. You know what my worry is? That you won't be able to buy an iPhone because there won't be enough of them to meet demand. (I'm attending WWDC this year and I'm hoping they will have something at the conference for attendees to be first in line to get an iPhone.)
As far as reducing the storage to 2GB - you've got to be kidding! Frankly I wish I could pay more and get a hard disk based version with 80GB.
I know a ton of business people at my company that want one just for the feature of visual voice mail.
Not every person I know wants one, but they don't have to sell to every single person to make this a success. Not every person I know wants an iPod either.
This device doesn't replace the need for an iPod. For example, I will probably get an iPod adapter for my car this year. When I do, I will need to buy a new iPod (because my current 2nd gen 20GB iPod doesn't have a dock connector - it has fire wire). So, I'll buy a 30GB iPod for this purpose because it will be permanently mounted in my glove box and I won't care about watching video on it - just music and I only have maybe 15GB of music right now.
But I will ALSO buy an iPhone the minute I can get my hands on one. And it will be the 8GB model. And when they come out with a better iPhone next year, I will buy that one too and give the old one to my daughter.
I will bet whatever you want that the iPhone will be a success. The sales goal apple has is low enough and the device is good enough that there is no doubt in my mind that it will be a success.
FUD in the making of this story. Just skimming through it I could see the FUD oozing out all over the place. The iPhone is already a success even before it has been released. People are willing to put up bids of $1000.00 to get there hands on one even though there is no iPhone out there to be sold yet. The iPhone is all about the interface and the ease of use. Nothing compares to it on the market, especially a clunky blackberry!
Check it out, Dan. You can watch the keynote on your iPod.
Of course, no one has responded to his actual complaint. He doesn't want the music to stop when he gets a call. Now that would not be the normal case IMO. He is talking about using his iPod for playlists at a party or for his family to listen to in the car. The only way the iPhone can solve this problem is if it includes a SAC (send all calls to voicemail) feature. Even that may not solve his problem--getting a call and letting his family continue to listen to music. For that he needs two devices, period. Also I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that he shouldn't be answering the phone while driving!
I agree with Jack, the phone interface blew me away. The screen that comes up when you get a call while you're on another call is the simplest way to do things (hold and answer, send to voicemail, merge calls, etc) I never bothered to figure out on my own phone. Even my grandparents could handle that. Take the iPod and internet stuff out and you might have a good phone for them.
The brilliance of the iPhone is that it isn't an iPod. A lot of cellphone makers have been trying to make music phones. The latest trend is to have an iPod-like interface for playing music. Unfortunately the iPod interface is terrible for phones, so they have two interfaces. With the iPhone, Apple redesigned the interface to be good at both (at first I was concerned that you can't go 180 degrees, you have to keep flicking, but then people pointed out the alphabet on the right side; so I'm pretty convinced they have something there).
Never underestimate the power of customer frustration. It's sometimes forgotten or ignored because its effects are not fully felt until there is a better alternative.
As I get older, more and more I just want something that works. Don't get me wrong, I love to hack things; make things work in ways they were not originally intended to. But I find it rediculous that I must apply those same skills to get a device to do what it is supposed to do in the first place!
Based on the current market offerings, Apple would have to make a concerted effort to produce a device that failed to raise the bar for most features.