Ok, so Dan brought you the news that Apple’s working on its second iPhone before even announcing the first. Surely, that’s out of hand. How could they be reporting on the second before even getting confirmation of the first? It lacks all journalistic integrity.
Well, CNET is going to one up CNBC (clearly, with four letter abbreviations starting with the letter “C”, they are in cahoots) by proclaiming that the iPhone will be a flop. That’s right faithful reader, you just saw a cart go flying by at full speed with a horse still in the stable. I’m just as excited as anyone because I’m looking to replace my phone in the coming months, but is it too much to wait for it to be announced, released, and in our hands for at least say… five minutes before rendering a verdict?
Let’s do an executive summary of why Michael Kanellos thinks the iPhone will fail. CNET wrote a story on the Mac mini causing widespread mini PC proliferation and it didn’t happen. CNET wrote a piece on Apple raising iMac prices not being contagious and that came true (the problem here is, I don’t remember everyone predicting that other companies would follow Apple’s move, that bit was fabricated by CNET). So basically, CNET suggests something foolish about an Apple product and it doesn’t come true. Then they suggest something foolish and refute it themselves. I can do the same thing. This doesn’t have anything to do with the iPhone.
Kanellos then goes on to the logical reasons. First, he contends that current cell phones aren’t awkward. They’re easy to use and stylish. Finally, he thinks users won’t trust in Apple’s ability to bring the right radio technology together.
Here’s the thing, no phone, save maybe Blackberry’s and Palms handle sync well. The only cell phone to enjoy iPod-like popularity has been the Razr. Even that hold is a little tenuous. There has yet to be that one standard setting cell phone that will send customers to stores in droves. That crown is still waiting to be claimed (unless you’re talking about the Razr). (For the record, Kanellos contends that Samsung has been working hard on their designs; I contend not enough: no one thinks the Blackjack is sexy.) Finally, customers won’t care if Apple is a proven radio manufacturer (completely ignoring their use of Bluetooth and WiFi). They care whether Apple supports its products well and have easily accessed support locations. Double check on that.
So finally, can we please at least wait for it to be announced before making any more judgments? I really don’t want to read an article on “what Apple did wrong in the iPhone” before Apple has even announced it.
I read Kanellos' article yesterday. What he doesn't include is conversation about (1) the fact that mobiles are becoming commodity items. We all own several iPods, we'll own several mobiles at some point. SIM card swapping isn't ideal, but it's still easy.
(2) Apple will integrate their phone into iLife in ways other phones simply are not. I'm a Sony Ericsson customer, and while they integrate fairly well into OS X, I'm anxious for the day when it will take less of my time to get data back and forth from my Mac. iPhone will streamline this process.
Finally, Apple will bring new features, possibly killer features, to their iPhone integration.
I am not crunching any numbers but I would suspect there are many people who would buy a iPhone for the close integration it will likely offer with Apple's suite of app's i.e. mail/calendar etc..
For me at least I am never in a rush to get something if it really doesn't meet my needs in a satisfactory manner. That's why I have an older cellphone and I have avoided electronic planners so far. I experience a very busy/planning/meeting work life but the usability of current phones/planners just don't fit with my Mac centered work life, read "bread and butter". I would likely buy an iphone given that other things such as service options etc are reasonable. I am kind of excited at the idea there may be an iPhone (with planning capabilities). Then again I am in Canada, so who knows when this might show up if it does at all.
cheers,
I don't think current phones are very usable, especially the Nokia. Buttons that ought to delete the last text character typically exit the mode without saving, for instance.
So maybe Kanellos was completely wrong.
"No one thinks the Blackjack is sexy."
I disagree.
'I don't think current phones are very usable, especially the Nokia...' Heh?? Of the handsets on the market today, the only really usable interface is the Nokia's.. Have you used a Moto lately...? Sanyo? Samsung? SonyEricsson? I work for a carrier and pretty much get everything new walking through the door, the only consistently usable and user-friendly interface are thos on Nokia handset.
I think that highlights one of the problems here, funkright. Namely, that there isn't yet an interface regarded as universally user friendly. For example, I hear lots of people ragging on Motorola's UI, but it works fine for me for the most part. Part of it is just what you're used to. But I'd say that none of them are really designed well.