Business 2.0’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt has taken it upon himself to figure out, from sparse details given during yesterday’s conference call, how the Apple TV is selling. Employing a complex mathematical formula, and a fair amount of guess work, he’s come up with a figure:
Apple and AT&T together sold 270,000 iPhones in Q3. Let’s assume that 90,000 of those were AT&T sales (1,800 stores times an average of 50 units a store). That leaves 180,000 iPhones sold at Apple stores. Figuring $600 a unit (since most people bought the 8 gig model), that’s about $108 million in deferred revenue for the iPhone. $180 million minus $108 million leaves $72 million for Apple TV sales. Figuring $350 per Apple TV (splitting the difference between the $299 and $399 models), I get …I’d say he’s within the target window: my gut says Apple TV sales were somewhere between 200,000-250,000 units in the quarter. Philip goes on to remind readers that Jobs called the Apple TV “a hobby” a few months ago. I like to think of it more as Apple’s beachhead in the living room, a foothold for future expansion. There’s no question that Apple will be adding more features to the Apple TV—they’ve stated that much in the past, and have shown it in action with the YouTube update. What they haven’t quite figured out is the whole pipeline for delivering content; and while many people swear by their Apple TVs, they clearly haven’t hit the mainstream buzz that the iPhone has. My Ouija board suggests that Apple’s already sold more iPhones than Apple TVs, despite the fact that the latter was released four months earlier.206,000 Apple TVs sold in Q3 2007.
But I’m anticipating the Apple TV 2.0 no less fervently than iPhone 2.0—if for no other reason than I don’t have an Apple TV…yet.
Speaking of Apple TVs, I picked mine up at the Plano Texas Apple Store (otherwise known as the Willowbend Store) earlier this month. I had some dough marked for it, but was holding off until after vacation, when I could get everything (you know, cables, new HDTV, new A/V receiver, new entertainment center to hold it all) without worrying if I would actually need that money for vacation unknowns. Know what I mean?
It was the last couple days of my vacation, and I used my iPhone to locate and dial the store, and had them hold an Apple TV Ultimate for me until COB the next day. I would be passing through town. I blogged my experience there if you're interested.
In the end, we ended up with a nice 47” Vizio HDTV, harmon kardon AV247, and a nice silverfish metal and glass entertainment center. All for the Apple TV. This will be forever known as the year my paycheck went to Apple and Apple accessories. The only purchases left this year will be Leopard, iLife, and iWork.
Next year I'll get the new Mac! ;-)
Stay off the Ouija, Dan, even if in jest. It's really not worth the trouble it causes, mate. Just my halfpenny's (=two cents)worth.
Whenever I go into an Apple store the AppleTV counter is always deserted. No one is looking.
Apple needs to have their retail staff push the Apple TV. Not hard, just ask, "Have you heard about the Apple TV?" And if not, ask if they'd like a demo.
A friend just got one because I told him he could sync his tunes to it and play his music on the good speakers he's got hooked up to his HDTV. He just didn't know.
The reality of it is that most people just aren't interested in Appletv. Why go through computer, itunes, and Appletv when I can drop the DVD in and hit play? Especially when I already have a DVD player and the picture quality is better.